Monday, 25 December 2017

random thoughts on cryptocurrency future

We saw huge profit-taking at Christmas which drove the currency down across all cryptocurrency coins by about 25%. I think this was just profit-taking and not a sudden lack of faith in the market.

However, we’re definitely seeing weaknesses in btc at the moment. Slow response times - over a day - and very high fees - I’ve seen up to about $30. It’s unacceptable and unusable.

Ask yourself the following questions.

1. Is the future of currency digital?
2. Is bitcoin technologically sound? (will it be ok as-is for the future or will it have to be hacked to a new better version)

If you said yes/no, (as I do), then you should stay in cryptos but divest of btc itself.

If you said no/no (as skeptics do), then sell all and get out.

If you said yes/yes, then hold and see whether btc survives.

[obviously: If you said no/yes, then you’re confused, or don’t know what bitcoin is].

My suspicion is btc will survive as a reference currency - like the USD in fiat markets - but that it has a limited use case because of technical problems.

5.5 billion people competing for 16 million coins mean that each coin is split so that each adult gets 0.003 btc. Meaning that if we take it that 0.003 btc is equivalent to say a month's wages, and the average wage is say 1000 usd, it means that the target price for btc is 0.003 = 1000 usd. Or $ 343 000 per btc. Just a guess. It's looking pretty bad right now.

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